What the Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator Does
Enter your portfolio value and a withdrawal rate, and this calculator shows the dollars you can pull in retirement plus how long the balance is likely to hold. At a 4% rate a $1,000,000 portfolio supports $40,000 in the first year — roughly $3,333 a month — and that figure rises with inflation each year afterward. Change the rate to 3.5% and the same portfolio yields $35,000; push it to 5% and you get $50,000 but the money runs down far faster. The 30-year projection makes those trade-offs visible instead of theoretical.
Where the 4% Rule Comes From
The 4% figure isn't a hunch — it traces to the 1998 Trinity Study, in which three Trinity University professors tested every rolling 30-year window of U.S. market history back to 1926. They found that withdrawing 4% of the starting balance and adjusting for inflation each year left most 50/50 to 75/25 stock/bond portfolios intact after three decades. That's why 4% became shorthand for a sustainable rate, and why the calculator defaults to it while letting you test the more cautious 3.5% or a more aggressive 5%.
Turning a Spending Goal Into a Savings Target
The same math runs in reverse. Divide your desired annual spending by your withdrawal rate to find the portfolio you need: at 4%, that's 25 times your yearly spending. Someone who wants $60,000 a year needs about $1,500,000; a $40,000 lifestyle needs $1,000,000; $80,000 needs $2,000,000. Drop to a 3.5% rate for a longer or more cautious retirement and every target grows by roughly 14% — $60,000 a year now calls for about $1,710,000. Use this view to see how close your current balance is to funding the life you're picturing.
Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Withdrawal Rate Comparison
Year-1 income and estimated portfolio longevity for a $1,000,000 portfolio (7% return, 3% inflation)
| Withdrawal Rate | Year 1 Income | Monthly | Portfolio at Year 30 | Lasts? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $30,000 | $2,500 | $1,840,000+ | Indefinitely |
| 3.5% | $35,000 | $2,917 | $1,200,000+ | 40+ years |
| 4.0% | $40,000 | $3,333 | $580,000+ | 30+ years |
| 4.5% | $45,000 | $3,750 | $120,000 | ~28 years |
| 5.0% | $50,000 | $4,167 | Depleted | ~23 years |
| 6.0% | $60,000 | $5,000 | Depleted | ~18 years |
| 7.0% | $70,000 | $5,833 | Depleted | ~14 years |
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter Your Portfolio Value: Type in the total balance of the investment accounts you'll draw from in retirement — 401(k), IRA, and taxable brokerage combined, e.g. 1000000.
- Set Your Withdrawal Rate: Start with 4% for a standard 30-year retirement, or 3.5% if you're retiring early and need the money to last 40+ years. Lower rates mean less income but a longer-lasting portfolio.
- Adjust Return and Inflation: The defaults of 7% expected return and 3% inflation reflect long-run averages for a stock-heavy portfolio. Lower the return if your mix leans toward bonds.
- Calculate and Read the Projection: Hit Calculate to see year-one income, monthly income, the balance after 30 years, and how many years the portfolio lasts. Rerun at a couple of rates to see the spread.
How It Works
Your safe withdrawal rate (SWR) is the slice of your portfolio you pull in year one — then keep pulling, adjusted for inflation — with a low chance of running dry over a 30-year retirement. Enter a $1,000,000 portfolio at 4% and the calculator shows $40,000 in year-one income, or $3,333 a month.
The basic rule:
- The 4% Rule: Withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, then adjust that amount for inflation each year
- The initial withdrawal amount: Portfolio × Withdrawal Rate
- Each subsequent year: increase the withdrawal by the inflation rate
- The portfolio grows by the expected return rate minus withdrawals each year
The 4% figure comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which tested historical returns from 1926 onward and found a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal survived 30 years in the large majority of stock/bond portfolios. Drop to 3.5% if you're retiring early and need 40 or 50 years of income; a flexible spender who can cut back in bad years might start closer to 5%.
Tips & Considerations
- Keep 1–2 years of spending in cash so a bad market year early in retirement doesn't force you to sell stocks at a loss — the main defense against sequence-of-returns risk.
- If you're retiring before 55, model 3.5% rather than 4%; a rate that survives 30 years fails more often across a 45- or 50-year horizon.
- Test a flexible plan: trimming withdrawals 10% in years the market drops can let a slightly higher starting rate hold up.
- Remember the reverse formula — annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate — to check the portfolio you'd need for a target lifestyle, like $1.5M for $60,000 a year at 4%.
- Don't count on a flat 7% every year; the projection uses an average, so treat a portfolio that barely lasts 30 years as too tight rather than just enough.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the 4% rule still safe in 2026?
The 4% rule still holds up as a starting point for a standard 30-year retirement, but its author, Bill Bengen, has both raised and lowered his own number over the years depending on valuations and asset mix. With high stock valuations and longer lifespans, many planners now anchor on 3.5% and treat 4% as the ceiling. If you can trim spending in a down market, 4% or slightly above is defensible; if your spending is rigid, err lower.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
It's the danger that a market crash lands in the first few years of retirement, while your portfolio is largest and you're selling shares to fund withdrawals. Two retirees can earn the same average return over 30 years, but the one who hits a bad stretch early can run out while the one who hits it late does fine. Cushions that help: keeping 1–2 years of spending in cash, cutting withdrawals in down years, and holding more bonds right around your retirement date.
How big a portfolio do I need to retire?
Flip the rate: Portfolio = annual spending ÷ SWR. At 4%, that's 25× your yearly spending. Want $40,000 a year? You need $1,000,000. Want $60,000? About $1,500,000. Want $80,000? $2,000,000. Move to a 3.5% rate and the multiple climbs to about 28.6×, so $60,000 a year needs roughly $1,710,000.
How does inflation change my withdrawals over time?
Under the SWR method you set the dollar amount in year one, then raise it by inflation every year to hold your buying power steady. Withdraw $40,000 with 3% inflation and you take $41,200 in year two, $42,436 in year three, and about $53,757 by year ten. The percentage of the portfolio you're pulling drifts up or down each year — the inflation-adjusted dollar amount is what stays fixed.
Why do some people use 3.5% instead of 4%?
Two reasons: longer retirements and lower expected returns. The Trinity Study assumed a 30-year horizon. A 45-year-old retiring FIRE-style may need the money to last 50 years, and a 4% rate that survives 30 years fails more often over 50. Starting at 3.5% (about 28.6× spending) buys a bigger margin against both a long life and a weak first decade of returns.
What portfolio mix does the safe withdrawal rate assume?
The Trinity Study's strongest results came from portfolios holding 50% to 75% stocks, with the rest in bonds. Too few stocks and inflation erodes you over 30 years; too many and a crash can force selling at the worst time. A common rule of thumb is to hold (110 − your age)% in stocks — 45% stocks at age 65 — but the SWR math assumes you stay invested rather than sitting in cash.